Harinina: From bus driver to VP: Who is Chavez' successor?

For six hours, surgeons in Havana operated on ailing?Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez,working to delicately remove the malignant cancer tissues that have sent him to the operating table three times since 2011. ?The outlook for Chavez?s recovery is bleak, according to government officials, leading many to speculate about the man he has named his successor, the bus-driver-turned-politician,?Vice President Nicol?s Maduro.

In the wake of Chavez?s announcement that his cancer had returned, Maduro has been increasingly thrust onto the global stage. Speaking on national television, he cautioned Venezuelans that they should expect to face ?hard, complex and difficult days,? as the 58-year-old president recovers from his surgery. ?Though Chavez won his third six-year term in national elections this?October, his illness may prevent him from fulfilling the responsibilities of office. If that happens, Chavez has prepared his?chavistas?to fall lock-step behind Maduro, said Mary Murray, an NBC senior producer and Latin American specialist. ?His supporters are closing ranks,? Murray said. ??They?ve said ?we?re going to keep power no matter what.??

Maduro would then stand to inherit the world?s largest oil reserves, but also the onerous task of steering a country plagued by high inflation, an 8.2% unemployment rate and rampant crime. Throughout his tenure, Chavez has been able to leverage his personality against the nation?s strife. He appears on his own television show, tweets out new policies and orders supporters to rally in the streets.

But Maduro may not be able to use the same tactics to pacify the people, said Stephen Johnson, director of the Americas program for the Center for Strategic and International Studies. ??There is the issue of whether he has the charisma to maintain following and keep public?attention?focused on himself as opposed to on Venezuela?s main problems,? he said.

Known as a party loyalist, Maduro started out as a bus driver for the Caracas Metro and rose slowly through the ranks. He went on to become a union organizer and then a member of the national assembly. He was eventually appointed foreign minister, a post that required him to tout Chavez?s agenda in diplomatic circles. Some?members of the Venezuelan diaspora?see that assignment as a natural stepping stone towards the presidency.

?I believe that his experience meeting other high-ranking politicians from all over the world has given him exposure on a global scale and has definitely given him some training if it comes to him taking over,? said mechanical engineer Emerson Guti?rrez, 36, a Minnesota resident who was born and raised in La Grita, Venezuela.

Maduro could, however, face challenges within his own party. ?The vice president?s lack of connections with the country?s?armed forces?could put him at a political disadvantage to potential rivals in the long run, such as former lieutenant commander Diosdado Cabello, the head of the parliament.

?I envision a power struggle between these two individuals,? said Carlos Sardi, a bankruptcy attorney who immigrated to Miami when he was 15. ?Venezuelan history has demonstrated that those who control the arms will go into power.?

After becoming president in 1998, Chavez used his rapport with the military to cement his power. ?The reality is, Chavez is a dictator?camouflaged?as a democrat,? said Sardi. ?When I hear Mr. Chavez talking, I feel ashamed of being a Venezuelan.?

Chavez may well recover from his surgery and return to office in good health, leaving Maduro with heightened public stature but no additional powers. This scenario leads some to think Maduro?s sudden prominence was merely a political?maneuver?designed to bolster support for Chavez?s party in the upcoming state governor elections.

?Chavez has a history of rotating loyalists around, and one reason, which is pure speculation on my part, is to keep them slightly off-balance so none of them would be able to amass too much influence or in any way approach equivalency with his influence,? said the Center for Strategic and International Studies? Stephen?Johnson.

International monitors were not allowed to observe?Venezuela?s last election. The opposition, led by Henrique Capriles, came closer to victory than any previous opponent but in the end 54 percent of the electorate appear to have voted for Chavez. His popular support almost ensures that, were he to hand over power, many Venezuelans would continue to support his party. But no matter who takes over in 2013, said Carlos Sardi, they would have a negligible impact on the country?s most deep-rooted problems of poverty and corruption.

?Even if you speculate what might happen,? Sardi said, ?I don? t see any of them getting out of the dark tunnel that Venezuela is in.?

Fred Mertz:

December 13th, 2012 at 6:00 am

So he's still dying.................I can see it now, 40 years from now the cast of SNL will be doing skits about this just like they did about "Generalissimo Francisco Franco". Or do I need to go to bed? Be well, and Merry Christmas to all of you.

Octavio Zambrano:

December 13th, 2012 at 6:04 am

well I believe what is first is first we shall wait for his recovery befor making desetioons.

Ron Myers:

December 13th, 2012 at 6:43 am

Dictators are all the same.Everything they do or propose is supposedly done for the citizens.In fact, every decision is done with a view into how they keep power.Whether it be Castro, Mao or anone else, they will suck the blood form a country unil there is nothing left to suck.Venezuela has a lot of oil blood so it can bleed for a while but sooner or later, it will all come falling down.The ones really hurt will be the ones who supported him and his rise to power.Hopefully the military will come to its senses and turn on Chavis and restore some since of democracy to this country.I doubt it but it is a wish! Tyrants will always be tyrants!

Bob Auld:

December 13th, 2012 at 6:45 am

Maybe if God decides to take Hugo he will be generous and take Sean Penn too. We can only hope.

December 13th, 2012 at 7:02 am

the true tyrant is the world banking cartel. the world bank and institutions which exist for the sole purpose of bleeding countries dry by imposing economic debt (AKA economic slavery). the institutions that run the Venezuelan oil reserves (and the Venezuelan gov't) are the run by the very same banking cartel. don't believe me? look at the history of Venezuela...those who ran for gov't leadership positions in the favor of the Venezuelan people profiting were assassinated. The statistics r in this article Venezuela has the worlds largest oil reserves and continues to have 60% unemployment. the powers at be suck the wealth from weak and impoverished Countries. this is what happened in Africa with the DeBeers Consolidated Mining Co. MONOPOLY since the 1800's (and continues to exist today), WAKE UP PPL...KNOWLEDGE IS TRUTH.

Janeth Butler:

December 13th, 2012 at 7:09 am

I'm impressed not only that he is still alive, but yet that according to online sources he is worth $1 billion dollars. It's a shame to see every politician in Venezuela fill their pockets with the peoples money, while they watch their own country fall to pieces. He should be incarcerated for theft, and his money used to pay for hospitals in Venezuela, not Cuba.

Caliambrose Makit:

December 13th, 2012 at 7:30 am

the middle class want a Venezuela to be like the U.S. they want freedom of speach. they want to beable to sell thier products to anyone-any country. they want a better country for all not just the rich and the poor, but for everyone. there is to many people that live in huts, houses, shacks, buildings that have no hot water, electicity, or just don't have a place to live. they want a New President- a President that will stop thinking that the U.S. is out to get him. Let Venezuelans be the free People they want to be!

December 13th, 2012 at 8:09 am

The true pity is that Venazuela is a gorgeous country, with many wonderful people, but it has never been allowed to realize its potential, having been run by a succession of semi-benevolent dictators, unable or unwilling to confront the corruption inherent in the oil industry, the military and the police. Education is haphazard, the oil wealth is frittered on self-glorification projects and oligarchs' bank accounts. The people of Venezuela deserve better - but the history of political incompetence and ingrained corruption holds little promise. Voters with no education, just self-interest, keep the flashy in power instead of choosing real reformers who could guide the country into the 20th century, then into the 21st. Still, one can hope that upon Chavez' passing, the bus driver can lay the foundations for a stable and prosperous Venezuela.